It doesn’t take a geopolitical analyst to know that the Middle East conflict is impacting Canadian households—you just need a trip to the gas station to fill up your tank. CAA’s national average gas price hit 170.4¢/L on March 25, up from 129.4¢/L a month earlier, and Statistics Canada had already flagged a 3.6% month-over-month jump in gasoline prices in February. Canadians are getting the message loud and clear, and further impacts may soon be reflected in broad consumer purchase behaviours.
Conflict Concerns: Significant Worries Over Rising Prices
In Numerator’s March 2026 Verified Voices survey of 1,030 Canadian shoppers, 66% indicated they are extremely or very concerned about the conflict’s economic impact. Gas prices are the headline, with 81% of shoppers naming them as a top concern. But the anxiety does not stop at the pump: 75% cite grocery prices, 68% cite the broader cost of living, and 41% worry about supply chain disruptions. Translation: Canadians are processing the conflict through the lens of, “what is the impact to my budget?”
Anticipated Cutbacks: Dining Out, Travel, and Large Purchases Most at Risk
Canadian consumers are not waiting for the bill to arrive before adjusting behaviours. More than 85% expect their household finances to get worse over the next three months. Just 8% say their spending will not change. Everyone else is already pulling out the red pen: 38% say they will cut back overall spending, 32% say they will both cut and shift spend, and 18% say they will shift spending across categories. The first things shoppers are pulling back on are dining out and takeout (67%), travel (48%), large purchases (47%), apparel (46%), and entertainment (44%).
This economic anxiety is not evenly shared. Lower-income shoppers are nearly three times as likely as higher-income shoppers to say their finances will get significantly worse in the next three months (37% vs. 14%). They are also much more likely to worry about housing and rent (40% vs. 22%) and to plan to trade down for grocery products more heavily (48% vs. 31%). Higher-income shoppers, meanwhile, are more likely to see this conflict as a portfolio problem: 42% cite stock market impact, and 18% say it will have no effect on their household finances at all. For some consumers, the Middle East conflict is a Bay Street conversation; for others, it’s a bread-and-butter concern.
Our Consumer Sentiment Tracker also highlights the top ways Canadian consumers are thinking about spare cash and savings. Nearly half (49%) plan to put any spare cash into savings, and over a third (35%) will use it to pay down debts. Shoppers are also looking for ways to save money, including cooking at home (39%), shopping for items on sale (39%), and using coupons or discount codes (34%).
Generational Splits: Millennials Expect to Shift Spending, Not Cut It Altogether
Spending and saving considerations vary by generation, as well. Boomers are in full defense mode: 88% cite gas prices as a concern, 50% say they will switch to lower-cost groceries, and 46% expect to cut gas and transportation spending. Millennials look more like budget jugglers than budget cutters: 22% say they will shift spending from some categories to others rather than pulling back altogether.
Next Steps for Canadian Brands and Retailers
In the face of economic impact, Canadians are rethinking every intended purchase. To effectively drive demand, brands and retailers should identify how their verified buyers plan to react to rising prices, quantify their risk, and adjust their value strategies accordingly. Numerator can help—get in touch with us to learn more.
